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Is lumber still expensive 2022?

Lumber prices in 2022 have been better than last year, but are still high from a historical long view.

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Why is there a lumber shortage? To answer that, it helps to parse out supply issues and demand issues. Let’s start with supply. As previously mentioned, supply side issues fuel shortages that can help raise prices. There are a number of those issues that have affected lumber prices over the last few years. Here’s an in-depth look at each of them.

Tariffs On Canadian Lumber

Tariffs were levied against Canadian lumber by the U.S Commerce Department in 2021 and have been slow to come off. This was done at the request of the U.S. Lumber Coalition, which claimed that Canada subsidized lumber coming to the U.S. so much that manufacturers in America were having trouble competing. These tariffs reduced the amount of Canadian lumber produced for the American market by making it more expensive compared to U.S. lumber, and thus reduced demand for Canadian lumber. While tariffs are in place, Canadian lumber producers are unlikely to ramp up production, resulting in less supply.

Pandemic-Related Shutdowns

In the COVID-19 pandemic’s earliest stages, economists and other experts predicted that the housing market – along with many other large sectors of the economy – would come to a halt. As a result, many lumber producers sent their workforce home and shut down operations completely. With lumber production coming to a virtual halt, demand grew at the same time. Many Americans were spending more time in their homes. As a result, more than a few of them decided they needed an addition to their house or to build a completely new one. The booming housing market and lack of lumber production created by the pandemic created a (not so) perfect storm that sent lumber prices soaring. Adding to the issue, many economists predicted the housing market would cool during the pandemic. Lumber producers took this advice and slowed down production so they wouldn't have too much product. Oops!

Shortages Of Skilled Labor

Lumber production can’t be turned off and on like a light switch. Getting production up and running again takes time, and getting the skilled labor needed to ramp up production remains difficult. As you’ve probably heard, labor shortages have been a major problem throughout 2021 and into 2022, and some industries have been hit particularly hard. Not only has the labor shortage reduced the number of workers available for the lumber industry, it has also created a shortage of truck drivers, which contributes to the supply chain problems.

Delays In Shipping

Throughout the pandemic, there has been an increase in supply chain bottlenecks when it comes to ports, truck and rail transportation. Some of the trade barriers in place have caused congestion at ports, meaning it takes longer for supplies to get to their final destinations.

Environmentally Sound Practices

Sustainable forestry practices make lumber more expensive and place limits on how much lumber can be harvested. However, these practices are necessary now to prevent more drastic shortages of lumber in the future.

Climate Issues

The past year included some extreme weather, including freezing temperatures in Texas and wildfires in the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, these weather patterns have also contributed to the shortage of available lumber.

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Will house prices fall 2022?

It said house prices will have risen 6 per cent by the end of 2022 but that they will fall 5 per cent in 2023 and a further 5 per cent in 2024 as a result of the sudden spike in mortgage rates caused by the government's fiscal plans. 7 days ago

Many experts predicting price drop between 5 and 15 per cent

Effects could vary depending on leverage and geography

For over a decade, UK house price growth has been unbroken. The Office for National Statistics has recorded an increase every month since May 2012. Neither Brexit nor the pandemic has been able to stop it, but many experts are now forecasting that the fallout from the “mini” Budget will. Last week, Knight Frank became the first major broker in the UK to forecast a double-digit downturn – predicting that house prices would fall almost 10 per cent over the next two years. It said house prices will have risen 6 per cent by the end of 2022 but that they will fall 5 per cent in 2023 and a further 5 per cent in 2024 as a result of the sudden spike in mortgage rates caused by the government’s fiscal plans. This would take house prices back to where they were last summer.

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