Will house prices crash in 2023?

House prices are expected to fall across the board as mortgage rates skyrocketed this summer, but not all properties will feel the crunch in the same way, says Hina Bhudia.

ftadviser.com - 'House prices will fall 5% in 2023 but some markets will outperform ...

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House prices are expected to fall across the board as mortgage rates skyrocketed this summer, but not all properties will feel the crunch in the same way, says Hina Bhudia. The partner at Knight Frank Finance says there are areas, particularly in the capital, that will experience a softer blow and could stabilise as early as 2024.

FTA: Have you noticed buyers holding off since the summer?

HB: Buyers have become more cautious in recent weeks, particularly since two-year fixed rate mortgages moved above 6 per cent. The market is still busy, but buyers are particularly eager to save money on their mortgage wherever they can. Most bills are rising and the mortgage is one of the only places where you can potentially knock hundreds of pounds a month off your outgoings by shopping around and seeking good advice.

FTA: Are house prices actually dropping, or are they still holding up? Will we see that 20 per cent drop?

HB: On a monthly basis, UK house prices have just started to soften, but each market and property type is going to fare differently. Our forecasts suggest UK house prices will fall 5 per cent in 2023 and again in 2024 before returning to growth. Various factors will keep a floor under pricing, from the shortage of homes to regulations introduced since the global financial crisis that have kept higher loan-to-value lending at sensible levels. Plus, the unemployment rate is likely to remain low relative to previous crises, which will keep forced sellers at a minimum. The mortgage is one of the only places where you can potentially knock hundreds of pounds a month off your outgoings. Some markets will outperform. We expect prices in prime central London to fall 3 per cent before flattening out in 2024, for example. Homes in prime central London will be more insulated from rising rates due to higher levels of affluence and housing equity as well as a broader base of returning international buyers.

FTA: Is it a buyers' or a sellers' market right now? Or nobody's?

HB: The market is finely balanced. There is a recognition among sellers that prices are softening and it makes sense to ensure any home is priced correctly – pragmatism from sellers makes sense when the buying power of borrowers is being eroded by rising interest rates. Having said that, there is a real urgency among those that want to buy. Most mortgage offers are valid for six months and in the majority of cases not getting a deal done within that time frame means renegotiating a new deal at a higher interest rate.

FTA: Who is doing most of the moving right now? Remortgagers, home movers or first-time buyers?

HB: We were seeing huge numbers of requests for product transfers, so clients were trying to secure a new rate with their existing bank.

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Are brick houses colder in winter?

Brick buildings have excellent thermal mass. Thermal mass is the ability of a heavy, dense material to store heat and then slowly release it. This means it is cooler in summer and warmer in winter.

watsontownbrick.com - Winter benefits of brick homes

Brick is one of the most enduring building products, providing warmth as well as wind protection and weather resistance, particularly in the winter. As we’ve discussed earlier, brick is also fireproof and pest resistant.

Warmth:

Brick buildings have excellent thermal mass. Thermal mass is the ability of a heavy, dense material to store heat and then slowly release it. This means it is cooler in summer and warmer in winter. This is a significant advantage considering that more than 30 percent of the average home’s energy use is made up of heating and cooling.

Energy Efficiency:

Because of its ability to reflect and retain heat, brick is more energy efficient than other building materials. It will help keep your home cool in the summer and warm in the winter and also lower your energy bills, as we’ll explore in an upcoming blog post.

Wind Protection and Weather Resistance:

In addition to warmth and energy efficiency, brick homes offer shelter from the storm – quite literally! Brick homes offer additional high wind protection when compared to vinyl siding. In fact, a study conducted at the Wind Science and Engineering Research Center at Texas Tech University, demonstrated that a medium-sized wind-blown object, such as a 7.5-foot long 2 x 4, would penetrate homes built with vinyl or fiber-cement siding at a speed of 25 mph. By comparison, the same object would need to travel at a speed exceeding 80 mph in order to penetrate the wall of a brick home. This is important in the case of a high wind event like a hurricane, tropical storm or tornado.